One of the things that happens every year is that everyone wants to know when the Salmon River Run will start and with that it becomes a waiting game like Punxsutawney Phil to emerge and tell us how much longer winter is going to be.
Here are three predictions of the fall run.
The first prediction of the Salmon River Run for 2019 is from a Facebook Page Salmon River New York Fishing.
This prediction is tongue in cheek because it is the same prediction that George Bahrakis a retired guide made in 2018.
As usual, we will be the first site to post a salmon prediction for 2019. Unlike other pages, Uncle George Bahrakis was spot on in 2018. So after studying the moon phases, photos of lightning, barometric pressure tables, and asking the guy at the 7-11 on the corner here it is…
Our Salmon River Prediction…Mid August-/+Third week…. you locals will have a small pod of King Salmon to play with for a few days till they all die (warm water).. Then expect the first fish-able Pod of Kings to enter the river about the second week +/- of September…..The season numbers will be very good for the rest of September through October…Second week in October…GET READY as the Steelhead will begin to enter and Mix with the Salmon..Somewhere In Mid September +/- The Cohos Will Begin to Blast in… REMEMBER YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST
Even though tongue and cheek, this prediction seems to be correct in regards to August. It will be interesting to see what happens this coming week.
The second prediction of the Salmon River Run for 2019 comes from NYUP’s Outdoor writer David Figura.
Based on charter boat captains observation, the article states that this could be a late run; however, each charter captain pointed out that this could change any day.
Finally, the last prediction comes from Shane Muckey of Altmar Outfitters Lodge. Out of all of the predictions Shane’s is more like the Money Ball predictions.
He has been keeping meticious records over a decade and he is a weather geek. His predictions seem to be based on previous history and his knowledge of the weather patterns of the Tug Hill and Lake Ontario.
Shane’s prediction is:
Alot of thought went into my salmon prediction for Tomorrow and Friday that I made 9 days ago … there was 4 ingridients i was looking for to happen over the course of the last 9 days….Ingridient 1: Cool nights…So far we have had 4 cool nights in the 50’s and one in the 40’s, this was needed badly as it was warm as hell when I started thinking about making a salmon run prediction, the river needed to shed 4-5 degrees and it did. Ingridient 2: offshore winds…then we had 4 east wind days ending yesterday, I would of like to have seen stronger winds in that event to upwell more water, but hopefully it was good enough, it blew pretty good yesterday. ingridient 3: thunderstorms, today we recieved over an inch of rain, but no lightning or storms, I would of like to have seen a good storm, hopefully the rains were good enough ingridient 4: strong flip back to west winds, this has not happened yet, its about a day behind what the weather forcasts were 9 days ago, but if the flip back is strong, and traps alot of fish out of temp, I think its game on. I’ll be headed to rt 3 tonight and tomorrow night to see if a run looks immanent… My prediction was for fish to run DSR the 29th tomorrow and hit Pulaski Friday the 30th, with west winds being a day late, I could be a day off, we’ll see, I still think fish are coming starting tomorrow… we are down to the nitty gritty folks,hoping for the best….fish on !!!!.
He followed up to clarify his prediction with “Been looking at weather models and long range maps…. First 2 weeks of September looks very friendly to Salmon Runs.”
It will be interesting to see how all of these predictions pan out this year. One thing that everyone seems to agree is that the kings are bigger this year.
Please let me know if you have any questions by leaving a comment.